Rupee’s Slow Start: Market Treads Cautiously Before Big U.S. Reveal

The Indian rupee opened slightly weaker on Tuesday, trading near ₹87.68–₹87.70 against the U.S. dollar. The market mood remained cautious as traders awaited the release of U.S. consumer inflation data, a key indicator that could set the tone for global currency movements this week.

Currency analysts say that the rupee’s mild decline reflects both global uncertainty and a “wait-and-see” approach from investors. The U.S. inflation report, expected later tonight, will influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. A higher-than-expected number could strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting further pressure on the rupee. Conversely, a softer reading may give emerging market currencies, including the rupee, some breathing space.

Domestic factors also play a role. While India’s economic fundamentals remain relatively strong, rising crude oil prices and ongoing foreign fund outflows have kept the currency under mild stress. Exporters and importers are also adjusting their positions ahead of the data to avoid sudden swings in exchange rates.

In the interbank market, trading volumes were light during early hours, as most participants preferred to wait for clearer signals from the global data release.

For businesses engaged in international trade and for retail investors keeping an eye on forex trends, today’s numbers could be a turning point. Whether the rupee stabilizes or weakens further will depend on how the U.S. data shapes the global risk sentiment.

Until then, it’s a day of cautious moves and watchful eyes on the currency charts.